kristen999 (![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png)
kristen999) wrote2011-02-02 10:17 pm
kristen999) wrote2011-02-02 10:17 pm
Watching the events in Egypt
So, the hated police who had cart blanch to arrest people and torture them 'disappeared' over the last few days in Cairo. Average citizens formed neighborhood watches to patrol their neighborhoods while protesters demonstrate (despite some criminal elements) and suddenly 'pro Mubarak protesters' show up and violently clash with those in Liberation Square?
Right.
Wonder who these new thugs are? Hmmmmm.
Now there's gunfire everywhere.
No one's being fooled here. Obviously with the protest movement gaining ground, suddenly things plunge into chaos and violence.
Anyone can tell that this is a ploy for those not involved in the protesting to ask the government to restore order. These are horrible tactics and I pray for those fighting a dictatorship will be able to hold on.
Right.
Wonder who these new thugs are? Hmmmmm.
Now there's gunfire everywhere.
No one's being fooled here. Obviously with the protest movement gaining ground, suddenly things plunge into chaos and violence.
Anyone can tell that this is a ploy for those not involved in the protesting to ask the government to restore order. These are horrible tactics and I pray for those fighting a dictatorship will be able to hold on.
no subject
It's frightening. A friend of mine has a friend who is married to an Egyptian. They are both here in the US but he still has family there. She wrote of her two sister-in-laws who live alone, who are terrified of going outside for food or medication. There are reports of rape, beatings and looting.
I can't imagine it. I just can't.
no subject
I'm a little torn, though. The people demonstrating have very valid concerns and I want their situation to improve, but at the same time, the idea of Egypt's government toppling frankly terrifies me. Mubarek's record may be deplorable, but in the wider, regional scope of things, he's been one of Israel's stronger supporters. Most Egyptians, I don't think, believe in Israel's right to even exist, so the chances of an anti-Israel government replacing Mubarek's is high. That could very well lead to a restart of war with Israel, and there's little doubt in my mind that most of the other Arab countries (specifically Lebanon, Syria, and the Gaza/West Bank areas) in the Middle East will throw their support behind Egypt if hostilities do break out. That would destabilize the entire region. Israel also has nukes, and they are just crazy enough - is crazy the right word here? - to use them.
Ideally, Mubarek is replaced with a people-led government that guarantees all Egyptians their basic rights, but that also honors the peace treaties with its neighbors. Really wish that was much more of a possibility than it seems to be at this point.
no subject
Mubarek needs to re-write their constitution to include democratic elected government, term limits, personal freedoms and appoint someone to overhead it. Beyond that I have no clue! Ha.
I just wish he would stop inciting the violence with his secret police. I would suspect any new government would not be pro-Israel which is why the U.S has been so cautious with it's backing of the situation.
While I see tensions rising between Egypt and Israel, I don't think Egypt would contemplate going to war with Israel for no reason...right? Even Iran hasn't done that.
But I am no expert, this is your field of expertise. :D
no subject
But if he does just step down, then what? Who's going to take his place? It will leave a power vacuum, and from everything I've read and heard, the only thing the protestors agree on is that they want Mubarek out. There's no consensus on who they want in place after him or how that process will happen, and what form the government will take. If Mubarek did re-write the constitution and put in place some way for them to transition peacefully, that would be pretty amazing. I'm not sure he will, or that people would accept it even if he did, but it seems like that would be the best solution.
Egypt does have a reason for war, from their point of view, and it's the same one they've had since 1948. They've historically fought over Palestinian rights, the borders, access to the Suez Canal, and if tensions were to bubble over into outright hostilities, I'm guessing it would be for one of those reasons again. The other fear is Israel tends to overreact in these situations with 20 times the amount of force they're possibly being threatened with. They have a strong military, and this strategy has worked as a deterrent. The mere threat of violence from Egypt could lead Israel to a pre-emptive strike, similar to what they did in 1967.
Iran, or at least elements within the Iranian government, would like to strike at Israel and probably think it's long overdue, but they'd have to go through Iraq, Syria, Jordan and possibly parts of Saudi Arabia to even get there. I don't think their relations with their Arab neighbors are strong enough for that; Iran is a little bit the odd man out in the Middle East, so while some countries may step up and side with Egypt when it comes to Israel, the chances of them doing that with Iran are way slimmer. I think Iran realizes this and don't think they can afford to risk it.
As usual, there is nothing easy or straightforward about any of this. I wish I could just sit back and say "Yay, go Egyptian people!" but then my brain starts going, "Well, what about this and this and this and this..." It does remind me of how good we've got it here, that's for sure. So in the meantime, I just sit glued to the news every night, wondering how this will all play out. :)
no subject
Odd that it was fairly civil until Mubarak's 'supporters' took to the square.