Watching the events in Egypt

[kristen999]

So, the hated police who had cart blanch to arrest people and torture them 'disappeared' over the last few days in Cairo. Average citizens formed neighborhood watches to patrol their neighborhoods while protesters demonstrate (despite some criminal elements) and suddenly 'pro Mubarak protesters' show up and violently clash with those in Liberation Square?

Right.

Wonder who these new thugs are? Hmmmmm.

Now there's gunfire everywhere.

No one's being fooled here. Obviously with the protest movement gaining ground, suddenly things plunge into chaos and violence.

Anyone can tell that this is a ploy for those not involved in the protesting to ask the government to restore order. These are horrible tactics and I pray for those fighting a dictatorship will be able to hold on.

Comments

[kristen999.livejournal.com]

I agree about being torn. I think the people need to show some patience, but I understand waiting for Sept is a long time. It's hard to ask for the only person in power to step down after 30 years of iron rule with no one to take his place.

Mubarek needs to re-write their constitution to include democratic elected government, term limits, personal freedoms and appoint someone to overhead it. Beyond that I have no clue! Ha.

I just wish he would stop inciting the violence with his secret police. I would suspect any new government would not be pro-Israel which is why the U.S has been so cautious with it's backing of the situation.

While I see tensions rising between Egypt and Israel, I don't think Egypt would contemplate going to war with Israel for no reason...right? Even Iran hasn't done that.

But I am no expert, this is your field of expertise. :D

[coolbreeze1.livejournal.com]

I do see a little bit where the demonstrators are coming from in wanting to see Mubarek out now. I think he's made similar promises in the past but has never followed through with it. From their point of view, they could very easily be wondering what is different about his promises this time, and who's to say he won't renege once September rolls around and the demonstrators' momentum is gone.

But if he does just step down, then what? Who's going to take his place? It will leave a power vacuum, and from everything I've read and heard, the only thing the protestors agree on is that they want Mubarek out. There's no consensus on who they want in place after him or how that process will happen, and what form the government will take. If Mubarek did re-write the constitution and put in place some way for them to transition peacefully, that would be pretty amazing. I'm not sure he will, or that people would accept it even if he did, but it seems like that would be the best solution.

Egypt does have a reason for war, from their point of view, and it's the same one they've had since 1948. They've historically fought over Palestinian rights, the borders, access to the Suez Canal, and if tensions were to bubble over into outright hostilities, I'm guessing it would be for one of those reasons again. The other fear is Israel tends to overreact in these situations with 20 times the amount of force they're possibly being threatened with. They have a strong military, and this strategy has worked as a deterrent. The mere threat of violence from Egypt could lead Israel to a pre-emptive strike, similar to what they did in 1967.

Iran, or at least elements within the Iranian government, would like to strike at Israel and probably think it's long overdue, but they'd have to go through Iraq, Syria, Jordan and possibly parts of Saudi Arabia to even get there. I don't think their relations with their Arab neighbors are strong enough for that; Iran is a little bit the odd man out in the Middle East, so while some countries may step up and side with Egypt when it comes to Israel, the chances of them doing that with Iran are way slimmer. I think Iran realizes this and don't think they can afford to risk it.

As usual, there is nothing easy or straightforward about any of this. I wish I could just sit back and say "Yay, go Egyptian people!" but then my brain starts going, "Well, what about this and this and this and this..." It does remind me of how good we've got it here, that's for sure. So in the meantime, I just sit glued to the news every night, wondering how this will all play out. :)